03 November 2022 | The Ghost of 2016
There’s a reason why the Oracle at Delphi stayed in business for so long: making vague predictions is a lot safer than outright saying, “Why yes, King Croesus, when I say ‘a great empire will fall,’ I definitely am referring to your enemies!”
No matter how rational we think we are, we often just want a glimpse at the future, to divine What Will Be, and sneak a peek at our horoscopes for good measure. It’s just being human, I suppose, while we otherwise scoff at those who plan their lives around such stuff.
So, I have no explicit prediction about the 2022 midterm elections. But yet, for some undefined reason, I can’t shake the feeling that the ghost of the 2016 election is lurking about. The polls and our Media Glitterati were very, very confident about the outcome; outliers were just dismissed. Until the dust settled, of course.
Which party will lose more seats in 2022? It could be one or the other, declare I. That’s the closest I’ll get to prophecy.
But that boldly said, something is not sitting right about this “red wave” narrative. Even if I divorce (as best I can) my own personal wishes about the outcome, there is too much external overconfidence bordering on arrogance to give me pause. (And that has nothing to do with thinking voters are, ultimately, rational actors. They are not.) May not mean anything at all, really. Or it could mean something.
So, this little post might age badly. Or not.